Percent of countries conducting annual forecasts
The percent of program-supported countries that conduct forecast reviews on an annual basis. This indicator is intended to measure the occurrence and consistency of forecasts. Forecasts are a key step in effective supply planning as well as medium-term procurement planning and resource mobilization. This indicator can be disaggregated by country and whether forecast reviews were received by program headquarters during the year.
This indicator is calculated as:
(Number of program-supported countries that conducted annual forecast reviews at the end of the reporting period/Total number of program-supported countries) x 100
Recorded forecasts of projected commodity requirements
Program manager or facility stock manager interviews; annual lists of products that the program has committed to supplying; forecasts, by product, for past years to ensure updates
This indicator is a good proxy for commodity management, as well as data use practices. There should be a formal plan and/or procedure in place to predict variance in demand and/or certain campaigns that require adjustments in forecasting. Accurate forecasting improves financial management, as well as program efficiency and effectiveness. With appropriate forecasting, countries and organizations are better able to procure adequate quantities of desired products, thereby reducing the likelihood of waste and/or stockouts, and increasing the likelihood of being able to meet customer needs and client demand.
It is important to update contraceptive and reproductive health commodity forecasts at least annually, because each year there will likely be variance in demand for certain commodities and/or certain campaigns that require adjustments in stock levels. Facilities must be prepared to handle this variability, so as to better meet actual demand. That said, it is important to remember that commodity forecasts are only an estimate of future demand. Other than a make-to-order replenishment system, forecasts are often incorrect. There are certain methods, however, that can aid in reducing the forecast error; for example, analyzing past consumption data and taking into account future campaigns which may lead to surges in stock levels.
This indicator only informs the evaluator of whether or not forecasts are updated at least once a year. It provides no insight into the quality of the update/forecast; nor does it say which commodities are included in it.
family planning, commodity
Aronovich D, Tien M, Collins E, Sommerlatte A, Allain L. 2010. Measuring Supply Chain Performance: Guide to Key Performance Indicators for Public Health Managers. Arlington, Va: USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 1.
United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Global Health Supply Chain Program. (2018). USAID global health supply chain program procurement and supply management IDIQ project monitoring and evaluation plan. Washington, DC, USA: Chemonics International Inc. Retrieved from https://www.ghsupplychain.org/sites/default/files/2018-02/2018_02_03%20MandE%20Plan.pdf